Hit Chances are pre-determined in every single turn...or not?

[mbelcikuwh]

hey guys..i was just testing a bit the system on how does the hit chances are worked in the game...

and i found a bit awkward in it,okay..here goes:

1. i have a >90% hit chances and it miss.i reload the game (maybe it was a fluke) 10 times,and yes..i did count how much i reload the game to see if it really "bugged".guess what..every single one of them didn't hit a single target

2. i flank a sectoid (2 tiles away) with 98% chance of hit,it miss...and yes 10 times (i'm using an assault class)

and i have other examples as well similar like the above...and here's the most strange parts comes to play...

at the same save game with the number 1,i tried to move any soldiers in the map and just use any actions commands (reload,OW,HD,shooting at the same alien and even just moving 1 tiles), the soldier i mentioned misses the shots,got the alien on the 11th attempt..and this is solved the awkward situation on number 2...

i'm actually kinda shocked and,honestly,a bit pissed about my findings...and i really really hoped it's just a fluke 10 out of 11...

please do share any kinds of information regarding the issue i'm having and i hoped it's not a bug...if it's not,what am i missing here guys??please help me

[GhostReaperSix]

Topic beaten to death.

http://forums.2kgames.com/showthread...-to-hit-or-not

[Langy]

The game is designed to prevent the sort of cheating you attempted. The sequence of 'die rolls' to determine whether you hit or not is indeed pre-determined and it's saved into your save game.

[Kinmaul]

This was purposely done by the developers to stop people from reloading constantly to get a shot to land. Since the rng seed is generated at the start of a mission (and saved with the game) the hit roll for that particular solider, in that position, on that particular turn is always going to be the same. If you reloaded from a few turns back and did things differently then you could get a different outcome because the shot would be different. During normal play you would never notice this since the number is generated randomly at the start of the mission, not when you take your shot.

Also note that it's not the hit or miss that is generated at the start of the mission it's the seed for the hit roll. Soliders with higher aim do land more shots.

[Phoynix]

Actually this explains part of my testing....
problem is that predetermination is overriding from the looks of it things such as hunkerdown +smoke.

Example You have a unit that gets killed.

You Reload.. you hunkerdown and smoke grenade to increase defense...

That unit still gets hit JUST the same.
Try it every TIME.

Problem
That unit is dead.. already decided, by the games seed value, and that seed value then ignores any and all actions that should change it.

The game using a fixed seed is fine, the game pre determining what units die.. no matter what afterwards(be it they are in cover, hunkered down.. in smoke... etc)
Ok did some more testing.
This predetermined death is only for players.. smoking aliens for testing.. changed the results THEY got from fire from my troops.

Aliens will always hit a unit, reload hunkerdown smoke and they will STILL hit it EVERY TIME.

As the games using the same seed, and that seed isnt being updated with player actions on player units something is broken.

[The Rockman]

The thing is with smoke and hunker down is they give a defense bonus, the only thing you can say here is the mobs predetrimed attack roll for that attack is so high its greater than the defensive boosts you are getting.
BTW I thought hunker down defensive bonus only works vs crits.

[Soduh Man]

It's a predetermined thing that only happens if a set of conditions are met, if a specific unit moves to that spot, if a specific alien is still alive to take that shot, if your soldier got hit before, it's a series of calculations, and if it wasn't like that, then people would save scum all the time to save their favorite soldier from dying.

[BvBPL]

This is the same as the Civilization series and not recreating the random seed on reload.

[Matt516]

Actually this explains part of my testing....
problem is that predetermination is overriding from the looks of it things such as hunkerdown +smoke.

Example You have a unit that gets killed.

You Reload.. you hunkerdown and smoke grenade to increase defense...

That unit still gets hit JUST the same.
Try it every TIME.

Problem
That unit is dead.. already decided, by the games seed value, and that seed value then ignores any and all actions that should change it.

The game using a fixed seed is fine, the game pre determining what units die.. no matter what afterwards(be it they are in cover, hunkered down.. in smoke... etc)
Ok did some more testing.
This predetermined death is only for players.. smoking aliens for testing.. changed the results THEY got from fire from my troops.

Aliens will always hit a unit, reload hunkerdown smoke and they will STILL hit it EVERY TIME.

As the games using the same seed, and that seed isnt being updated with player actions on player units something is broken.

The seed determines the roll (0-100). Looks like in your case, the roll was just high enough to hit even with smoke. The game does not calculate hits or misses beforehand because it does not know what you're going to do. It only calculates rolls. 0-100. That's it.

[Chthon]

Actually this explains part of my testing....
problem is that predetermination is overriding from the looks of it things such as hunkerdown +smoke.

Example You have a unit that gets killed.

You Reload.. you hunkerdown and smoke grenade to increase defense...

That unit still gets hit JUST the same.
Try it every TIME.

Problem
That unit is dead.. already decided, by the games seed value, and that seed value then ignores any and all actions that should change it.

The game using a fixed seed is fine, the game pre determining what units die.. no matter what afterwards(be it they are in cover, hunkered down.. in smoke... etc)
Ok did some more testing.
This predetermined death is only for players.. smoking aliens for testing.. changed the results THEY got from fire from my troops.

Aliens will always hit a unit, reload hunkerdown smoke and they will STILL hit it EVERY TIME.

As the games using the same seed, and that seed isnt being updated with player actions on player units something is broken.

The game does not go as far as to determine who's going to die and who's going to live at the start of a match. It only determines what the first X number of rolls will roll out to (could be 100 could be 10) These could be used for to hit values, crit chance, damage rolls, or panic rolls.

Anything that has at least one random component will use up one roll for each random component. At this point that many new random rolls are determined and saved to the seed. This means that if you don't like how something turned out, your options to get a new outcome consist of either A) doing something different, using the rolls in a different manner, or B) reloading from the mission select screen before any rolls/map/alien placement was determined. B) is effectively a clean slate in all accounts.

[RotorHed]

The use of the term "pre-determined" is not accurate at all, and is leading people to think their actions have no impact.

The "seed" is essentially a start place in the random number sequence (different seeds are used to ensure you don't get the same sequence of random numbers every time you play the game), and an algorithm runs based on that seed to generate a random number whenever one is requested. Yes, if you know the algorithm, the seed and the number of random number requests made since the seed was set, that random number is predictable.

As has been discussed the seed is saved. If you take actions that use, for example, the 10th random number based on the seed (let's say you take shot 10) that 10th random number will always be same, no matter how many times you reload.

If you reload and take actions to ensure that the 10th random number is not used (for example, by taking shots in different orders, letting the AI take shots without response etc) then you will get a different random number when you come to shot in question (although the observable result may not change of course).

As for chucking smoke etc - well if you're still using the 10th Random Number (in this example) and it happens to be particularly low, modifying the CTH with smoke or other effects may not be enough to overcome the low random being generated.

However, nothing is "predetermined" in any gameplay effecting way. This phenomenon is only evident if you are trying to to play the game outside the rules laid down by the developers i.e. trying to cheat death through reloads.

Rotor.

[mbelcikuwh]

The use of the term "pre-determined" is not accurate at all, and is leading people to think their actions have no impact.

The "seed" is essentially a start place in the random number sequence (different seeds are used to ensure you don't get the same sequence of random numbers every time you play the game), and an algorithm runs based on that seed to generate a random number whenever one is requested. Yes, if you know the algorithm, the seed and the number of random number requests made since the seed was set, that random number is predictable.

As has been discussed the seed is saved. If you take actions that use, for example, the 10th random number based on the seed (let's say you take shot 10) that 10th random number will always be same, no matter how many times you reload.

If you reload and take actions to ensure that the 10th random number is not used (for example, by taking shots in different orders, letting the AI take shots without response etc) then you will get a different random number when you come to shot in question (although the observable result may not change of course).

As for chucking smoke etc - well if you're still using the 10th Random Number (in this example) and it happens to be particularly low, modifying the CTH with smoke or other effects may not be enough to overcome the low random being generated.

However, nothing is "predetermined" in any gameplay effecting way. This phenomenon is only evident if you are trying to to play the game outside the rules laid down by the developers i.e. trying to cheat death through reloads.

Rotor.

so if i try to move about couples of tiles and shooting from different angles or ranges it could produce the new number from the seed??

[Chthon]

so if i try to move about couples of tiles and shooting from different angles or ranges it could produce the new number from the seed??

No, you have to use the random number up so that the generator moves to the next. However if you move and have a better chance to hit, it could mean that now the chance to hit is above the random number that was generated and now you can hit. However this is not a guaranteed thing unless you happen to have figured out what the number was in the first place.

If you can't hit the target no matter what you do, it may be better to simply not use it, and let the aliens have it next turn. Maybe they'll fudge their first shot because of that

Edit: Please note, this system is random for all intents and purposes. The only reason you see anything of the seed is you are attempting to game the system, and it's designed to stop you. Also note: While computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it is near impossible for a person to recognize this fact from the output.

[mbelcikuwh]

No, you have to use the random number up so that the generator moves to the next. However if you move and have a better chance to hit, it could mean that now the chance to hit is above the random number that was generated and now you can hit. However this is not a guaranteed thing unless you happen to have figured out what the number was in the first place.

If you can't hit the target no matter what you do, it may be better to simply not use it, and let the aliens have it next turn. Maybe they'll fudge their first shot because of that

Edit: Please note, this system is random for all intents and purposes. The only reason you see anything of the seed is you are attempting to game the system, and it's designed to stop you. Also note: While computers cannot generate truly random numbers, it is near impossible for a person to recognize this fact from the output.

aaah i see...so that's why 90% chance to hit can be 100% miss if the numbers "says so"...

if it is,why bother with adding statistical chances that displays % chances to hit for the players to see in the first place?i mean,now i understands how it works i doesn't feel strange,rather it helps me to plan better tactics and stuffs as well,but for the very new to the game and finds what i find earlier in this post would be strange is it?

if i remember correctly, the original xcom and xcom:apocalypse doesn't have this method (well,maybe apoc have a real time combat options as well)

[Chthon]

aaah i see...so that's why 90% chance to hit can be 100% miss if the numbers "says so"...

if it is,why bother with adding statistical chances that displays % chances to hit for the players to see in the first place?i mean,now i understands how it works i doesn't feel strange,rather it helps me to plan better tactics and stuffs as well,but for the very new to the game and finds what i find earlier in this post would be strange is it?

if i remember correctly, the original xcom and xcom:apocalypse doesn't have this method (well,maybe apoc have a real time combat options as well)

The reason is, while the number was predetermined by the game, the player does not know what the roll was. The only time this come to be visible to the player is if they try to game the system by reloading and firing again, in which case, yes, now you know that the roll was a fail.

The point of saving in a strategy is not to game the system. This is why so many implement a system like this. The point of saving in a strategy is retrying a battle, or leaving for a bit to do something else. If you reload because you don't like the outcome, either try something different, or reload from mission control so you get an entirely new battlefield so that you can't use pre-knowledge.

[lamaros]

Or play a different game.

[mbelcikuwh]

The reason is, while the number was predetermined by the game, the player does not know what the roll was. The only time this come to be visible to the player is if they try to game the system by reloading and firing again, in which case, yes, now you know that the roll was a fail.

The point of saving in a strategy is not to game the system. This is why so many implement a system like this. The point of saving in a strategy is retrying a battle, or leaving for a bit to do something else. If you reload because you don't like the outcome, either try something different, or reload from mission control so you get an entirely new battlefield so that you can't use pre-knowledge.

wooowww,this i is really new to,although i like the idea behind the system implemented to the game..thanks a lot for the info guys,it's not not hard to grasp what the dev were trying to do by suppressing abuse of the system itself...

eh btw,i tried to search around in google for a tips and advice on how to do the Impossible mode and i found none as of now,i'm beginning to understand how they move and how i can plan better tactics in the battlefield by kiting them into my "nest", picking them one by one,but it seems the game was over when the councils "breaks" from the board,and i only have 2 sat by the end of the 2nd month...so yeah,i failed big time on the global threat side :P