I have always assumed that (with the exception of an over-run) the game simply takes the attacking points and defending points, and then just works out the probability of you winning from these two figures, and then runs a random "Thingie"(TM) to determine the actual outcome, i.e.
Attack 50, Defend 50... the odds of winning are 50:50, a coin toss. In an infinite series of battles you would win an average 50 out of every 100.
Attack 60, Defend 50... the odds of winning are 60:50 or 6:5. In an infinite series of battles you'd win 6 out of every 11 on average.
In other words, add the Attack and Defend points together (the total points), and then compare this total to your Attack points, for your odds of winning.
If this is how the game does it, it would explain why, for example, you can still lose in a 3 v 1 battle. The total points are 4, and so the odds of you winning are 4:3, ie for every 4 battles, on average you'd win 3. In other words, you'd still lose 25% of the time!
Every battle (unless the odds are 6:1[?] or better which is an "over-ride" and gives you an automatic victory) is losable.
Even 50 v 10 means you will "only" win 50 in every 60 battles, on average.
Is this right?
Or are the battle odds mechanics a little more refined?
I have definitely lost, say, a 27 attack battleship to a 9 defense cruiser before and found myself in utter disbelief, when actually, if the above battle odds system is correct, this will happen 9 in every 36 times (or 1/4 of the time) on average. I guess it's just a shock when it *does* happens, because I imagine my battleship *should* be invincible!
So is this actually how the odds are calculated, or are the mechanics more complicated?